Most economists expect the global economy to weaken in the coming year amid political and financial volatility, but a large majority of over 90 per cent are confident of moderate or strong growth in South Asia, notably India, a survey showed on Friday. At the same time, the outlook for China has dimmed following signs of deflationary pressures and fragility in the country's real estate market, the World Economic Forum's latest 'Chief Economists Outlook' report said. As the world grapples with political and financial volatility, almost six in 10 believe the global economic outlook will undermine progress towards meeting the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), with 74 per cent saying geopolitical tensions will have the same effect.
Most market analysts are expecting the momentum to shift towards 'quality' and 'growth' stocks in 2024 after the outperformance of 'value' stocks over the past three years. 'Value' stocks are generally well-established companies with steady profits that are trading at a discount to what they are intrinsically worth. Companies in sectors such as commodities, industrials, commercial vehicles and public sector units (PSUs) fall in this bracket.
India's services sector activity expanded at a slower pace in December as rates of growth in sales eased to a three-month low and staff hiring came to a halt amid weak business optimism, a monthly survey said on Wednesday. The seasonally adjusted India Services Business Activity Index fell from 53.7 in November to 52.3 in December. The index was above the critical 50 mark that separates growth from contraction for the third month in a row during December, but pointed to the slowest pace of expansion in the three-month sequence.
The country's manufacturing sector activity grew at the slowest rate in four months during March, hampered by softer rises in new business as international demand faltered owing to the coronavirus pandemic, a monthly survey said on Thursday. The headline seasonally adjusted IHS Markit India Manufacturing PMI fell to 51.8 in March, from 54.5 in February, signalling the slowest improvement in business conditions since November 2019. This is the 32nd consecutive month that the manufacturing PMI has remained above the 50-point mark.
Treasury gains helped ICICI Bank post a nearly 10 per cent increase in the consolidated net profit for the April-June quarter at Rs 11,696 crore on Saturday. Growth in the core income slowed for the country's second largest private sector lender, but the treasury operations helped it report a 14.62 per cent rise in its post-tax profit at Rs 11,059 crore on a standalone basis. The core net interest income (NII) growth came at a multi quarter low of 7.3 per cent to Rs 19,553 crore for the reporting quarter.
Passenger vehicle wholesales crossed the 10-lakh mark for the first time ever in the June quarter riding on the back of robust demand for utility vehicles, industry body SIAM said on Friday. Total dispatches of passenger vehicles in the first quarter stood at 10,26,006 units, up 3 per cent as compared with 996,565 units in April-June FY24. Utility vehicle sales rose 18 per cent to 645,794 units in the first quarter as against 547,194 units in the year-ago period.
According to the TeamLease Employment Outlook Survey for the next six months (October 2014 - March 2015), global macroeconomic trends and domestic demand have put business and employment sentiment on a fast paced upward trajectory.
Private equity (PE) investment in real estate declined 5 per cent year-on-year in April-June to $1.9 billion because of high interest rates, according to Anarock. PE inflows stood at $2 billion in the year-ago period. Real estate consultant Anarock has come out with a report titled 'FLUX Q1 FY24 Market Monitor for Capital Flows in Indian Real Estate'.
Fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies anticipate sustained volume pressures in the January-March quarter (Q4) coupled with sluggish rural growth during the period. Brokerages estimate top-line growth to be in low single digits in the quarter. Also, the late onset of winter had an impact on demand for winter products which range from moisturisers to hot beverages.
Deloitte India on Friday said it estimates India's GDP growth at 6.6 per cent in the current fiscal helped by consumption expenditure, exports rebound and capital flows. In its India's economic outlook report, Deloitte said the rapid growth of the middle-income class has led to rising purchasing power and even created demand for premium luxury products and services. With the expectation that the number of middle-to-high-income segments will be one in two households by 2030/31, up from one in four currently, we believe this trend will likely become further amplified, driving overall private consumer expenditure growth, it said.
With the merger between HDFC Bank and HDFC Ltd complete, analysts said the next key monitorable for the Street would be successful resolution of merger-related hiccups, including employee-related churn and roll out of complete banking services across branches. At the bourses, they expect the stock to perform in-line with the benchmark indices in the near-term. "There's usually an initial period of consolidation after a merger as the entities work towards integration.
Indian service sector output broadly stabilised in September but remained in the contraction zone as incoming new business fell moderately due to the damaging impact of the pandemic on demand, leading to more job losses.
Moody's said it reflects India's weaker performance on fiscal.
India's services sector activity moderated in December as business activity and sales rose at a softer pace, while price pressures and the possibility of new waves of Covid-19 affected business sentiment, a monthly survey said on Wednesday. The seasonally adjusted India Services Business Activity Index fell from 58.1 in November to a three-month low of 55.5 in December. The rates of expansion moderated but were nevertheless "marked" by historical standards, the survey said.
rediffGURU Ramalingam Kalirajan answers your personal finance queries.
Services companies reported an increase in new work intakes, which they attributed to successful marketing efforts and strengthening demand.
'The noise that we are hearing is because the five big IT players are not hiring significantly.'
Kansai Nerolac Paints has seen its market capitalisation (mcap) erode by over 5 per cent since May 3 after posting a subpar performance in the fourth quarter of 2023-24. Weighed down by stiff competition, the company has shed Rs 1,172 crore over the past two weeks in mcap. India's largest paint maker in terms of mcap, expects double-digit growth in the industrial segment and aims to maintain margins, but its performance in decorative paints could suffer amid competition.
India's economic growth prospects should remain strong over the medium term, with GDP expanding 6-7.1 per cent annually in fiscal years 2024-2026, S&P Global Ratings said on Thursday. In a report titled 'Global Banks Country-By-Country Outlook 2024', S&P said the banking sector's weak loans will decline to 3-3.5 per cent of gross advances by March 31, 2025, on the back of structural improvement, including healthy corporate balance sheets, tighter underwriting standards and improved risk-management practices. Interest rates in India are unlikely to rise materially, and this should limit the risk for the banking industry, it added.
'In April, we saw a 10 per cent growth in our own volumes.'
Moody's in its report said power generators were unlikely to benefit meaningfully.
India's services sector activities eased in March as growth was hit by the detrimental impact of the coronavirus pandemic and input costs remained elevated, a monthly survey said on Wednesday. The seasonally-adjusted India Services Business Activity Index fell from 55.3 in February to 54.6 in March. Though the rates of expansion softened, it indicated growth for the sixth consecutive month. In PMI parlance, a print above 50 means expansion while a score below 50 denotes contraction.
'That is a significant milestone for us and something we aspired for.'
India's services sector activities contracted further in June as the intensification of the COVID-19 crisis and reintroduction of containment measures restricted demand, a monthly survey said on Monday. The seasonally adjusted India Services Business Activity Index fell from 46.4 in May to 41.2 in June, as new work intakes and output contracted at the fastest rates since July 2020, which prompted companies to reduce employment again. Subdued demand conditions resulted in a second successive monthly drop in new business received by services firms.
Geopolitical events, macroeconomic data and quarterly earnings of corporates would guide the stock market in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Stock markets will remain closed on Wednesday for Ram Navami. "This week promises to be crucial for the market as fresh worries about a potential conflict between Iran and Israel emerge.
'These are the two core skill sets that are required for any job, in any profession.'
Even as banks and finance companies are reporting record-high earnings, their weighting in the benchmark National Stock Exchange Nifty50 Index has seen a downward trajectory. Investors expect a stronger performance from other sectors in the new year. Currently, banking, financial services and insurance (BFSI) companies collectively hold a weighting of 34.5 per cent, down from 36.7 per cent at the end of December 2022 and a record high of 40.6 per cent at the end of December 2019. This represents the sector's lowest weighting in the index since December 2021 when it stood at 33.7 per cent.
However, predictions that economic conditions will normalise after the elections underpinned optimism regarding the outlook and supported a stronger upturn in employment.
The mutual fund (MF) industry had an action-packed 2023 as it tackled the scrapping of tax benefits for debt fund investors and surging flows into equity funds.
The improvement in business conditions promoted job creation, while confidence towards the year-ahead outlook for activity was at a four-month high during March.
India's services activity expanded at the fastest rate in a year during February, while employment fell further and companies noted the sharpest rise in overall expenses, a monthly survey said on Wednesday. The seasonally adjusted India Services Business Activity Index rose from 52.8 in January to 55.3 in February, pointing to the sharpest rate of expansion in output in a year amid improved demand and more favourable market conditions. The index was above the critical 50 mark that separates growth from contraction for the fifth month in a row during February as the roll-out of COVID-19 vaccines led to an improvement in business confidence towards growth prospects.
'We are cautious only on sub-sectors that have seen massive melt-up during the past six months.'
Fitch Ratings on Tuesday affirmed India's sovereign credit rating at 'BBB-' with a stable outlook, saying the rating derives strengths from the country's robust growth outlook and still-resilient external finances. It said India's robust medium-term growth outlook is a key supporting factor for the rating. A clear improvement in corporate and bank balance sheets, which were under strain prior to the pandemic, is likely to facilitate a steady acceleration in investment in the coming years.
Information technology (IT) companies have been on the road to revival in the past one year. From being the worst-hit sector in 2022 with a loss of 26 per cent, the Nifty IT index closed 2023 with gains of 24 per cent. So far in 2024, the index is up around 7 per cent against the nearly flat Nifty 50 benchmark index. The IT index has been on a continuous decline in the last three sessions.
'The deal pipeline across products is robust for 2024.'
India's services sector activities eased to a three-month low in April, as the rise in business activity was constrained by the pandemic and sentiment towards growth prospects faded, a monthly survey said on Wednesday. The seasonally adjusted India Services Business Activity Index fell to 54 in April from 54.6 in March, the slowest increase in output in three months. In PMI parlance, a print above 50 means expansion while a score below 50 denotes contraction.
They say that a stimulus package may not be necessary because, unlike last year's total lockdown, public transport, including the railways and airlines, is running and the restrictions on movement are localised and, in some cases, are partial rather than total.
The index is currently trading at 149 per cent of its historical P/B valuation, surpassing its previous peak of 125 per cent made in 2020-21.
'We expect market consolidation and recommend buying during market dips.'
Rubber prices have fallen globally by 20% from record highs. 10% of the tyre sector is likely to have already shifted to synthetic rubber. This shift to synthetic rubber by Indian tyre companies could affect tyre prices.
